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The 52 Week Low Formula Luke Wiley

The 52-Week Low Formula - Luke L. Wiley. A Contrarian strategy that lowers risk, beats the market, and overcomes human emotion.

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  • Mã sản phẩm: TH4710
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The 52-Week Low Five Filter Formula .................................................... 8

Introduction ........................................................................................... 9

Foreword ............................................................................................. 20

Acknowledgments ................................................................................ 22

Chapter 1 The 52-Week Formula ........................................................... 24

The Birth of The 52-Week Low from a $1,400 Book ............................................... 29

Chapter 2 Herding and the Bandwagon Effect ...................................... 38

Chapter 3 Filter 1: Competitive Advantage ............................................ 43

Barriers to Entry ...................................................................................................... 47

Network Effect ......................................................................................................... 49

Switching Cost .......................................................................................................... 49

Powerful Suppliers ................................................................................................... 50

Substitute Offerings ................................................................................................. 51

What to Look For ..................................................................................................... 52

Western Union (WU) ........................................................................................... 53

Visa (V) ................................................................................................................. 54

Campbell’s (CPB) .................................................................................................. 54

Fastenal (FAST) .................................................................................................... 55

Waters (WAT) ....................................................................................................... 56

Summing It Up ......................................................................................................... 56

Chapter 4 Five Common Mistakes Investors Make ................................ 68

Mistake 1: Trusting Your Emotions Instead of Engaging the Mind ....................... 68

Mistake 2: Lack of Discipline and What is the Ulysses Contract? .......................... 70

Mistake 3: Apathy the Halo Effect ............................................................................ 71

Mistake 4: Information Overload ............................................................................ 73

Mistake 5: Mistaking Value and the Risk of Familiarity ......................................... 74

Chapter 5 Filter 2: Free Cash Flow Yield ............................................... 77

Chapter 6 The Power of Fear and Decision Fatigue ............................... 90

Chapter 7 Filter 3: Return on Invested Capital ...................................... 96

A Complicated Measurement ................................................................................ 100

Turning Back the Clock ........................................................................................... 101

  • • The Five Competitive Forces ........................................................................ 45
  • Chapter 8 This Time Is Never Different .............................................. 106

    Chapter 9 Filter 4: Long-Term Debt to Free Cash Flow Ratio .............. 109

    Calculating Long-Term Debt to Free Cash Flow .................................................... 112

    A Few Notes about Debt ......................................................................................... 113

    Long-Term Debt to Free Cash Flow: Head-to-Head .............................................. 115

    Bout 1: Heavy Equipment ................................................................................... 115

    Bout 2: Cosmetics ................................................................................................ 117

    Summing It Up ........................................................................................................ 119

    Chapter 10 The Sunk-Cost Bias and Pride and Regret ......................... 128

    Chapter 11 Filter 5: The 52-Week Low Formula and My Journey Trying to Disprove It .............................................................................................. 132

    A Matter of Timing ................................................................................................. 135

    My Journey of Skepticism ...................................................................................... 135

    Chapter 12 The Importance of Embracing a Trailing 12-Month Return of −25 Percent ............................................................................................. 146

    Chapter 13 The Problem with Selective Perception and Confirmation Basis ........................................................................................................ 157

    Chapter 14 Putting It All Together ....................................................... 161

    Reviewing the Filters ............................................................................................. 162

    Filter 1: Durable Competitive Advantage ........................................................... 162

    Filter 2: Free Cash Flow Yield (Margin of Safety) ............................................. 163

    Filter 3: Return on Invested Capital .................................................................. 163

    Filter 4: Long-term Debt to Free Cash Flow Ratio ............................................ 164

    Filter 5: The 52-Week Low ................................................................................. 164

    Your Part to Play .................................................................................................... 166

    About the Companion Website ........................................................... 170

    About the Author ................................................................................. 171

    Author’s Note ...................................................................................... 172

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